Predicting Fiscal Crises : A Machine Learning Approach /

In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random fores...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Hellwig, Klaus-Peter
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/150
Subjects:
Online Access:Full text available on IMF