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|z 9781455201891
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Crowe, Christopher.
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|a Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation /
|c Christopher Crowe.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2010.
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|a 1 online resource (43 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation.
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|a Consensus Forecasts
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|a Information Aggregation
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|a United States
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2010/178
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2010/178/001.2010.issue-178-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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