Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation /
Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds...
| Autore principale: | |
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| Natura: | Periodico |
| Lingua: | English |
| Pubblicazione: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2010.
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| Serie: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2010/178 |
| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | Full text available on IMF |
| Riassunto: | Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation. |
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| Descrizione del documento: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (43 pages) |
| Natura: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Accesso: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |