Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis /

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals...

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Bibliografiske detaljer
Hovedforfatter: Clinton, Kevin
Andre forfattere: Chen, Huigang, Johnson, Marianne, Kamenik, Ondrej
Format: Tidsskrift
Sprog:English
Udgivet: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Serier:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/214
Online adgang:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis /  |c Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2009. 
300 |a 1 online resource (23 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Chen, Huigang. 
700 1 |a Johnson, Marianne. 
700 1 |a Kamenik, Ondrej. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2009/214 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/214/001.2009.issue-214-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library