Assessing Target Zone Credibility : Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS /

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rat...

Πλήρης περιγραφή

Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
Κύριος συγγραφέας: Svensson, Lars
Μορφή: Επιστημονικό περιοδικό
Γλώσσα:English
Έκδοση: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1991.
Σειρά:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1991/096
Διαθέσιμο Online:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Svensson, Lars. 
245 1 0 |a Assessing Target Zone Credibility :   |b Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS /  |c Lars Svensson. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 1991. 
300 |a 1 online resource (35 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 1991/096 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1991/096/001.1991.issue-096-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library