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|a 1018-5941
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|a Babajanyan, Victoria.
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|a The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model :
|b A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia /
|c Victoria Babajanyan, Daniel Baksa, Martin Fukac, Eduard Hakobyan.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2022.
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|a 1 online resource (64 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper presents an overview of the Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model (AFSM), which is a structural, New-Keynesian, DSGE, small open economy model with a rich fiscal block that includes several expenditure and revenue instruments, and types of debt. The AFSM is now a formal part of the Ministry of Finance analytical toolkit to do macroeconomic fiscal policy scenario analysis, which feeds into policy discussions, budget planning, and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. The model was applied to assses the macroeconomic impact of the "first wave" of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Armenian economy, including the mitigating effects of policy responses. AFSM simulations revealed a potential severe impact in 2020, with declines in GDP and consumption of 12.9 and 11.7 percent, respectively, and a cumulative loss of GDP of 38 percent for the period 2020-2023. They also highlighted a significant fiscal outlook deterioration that would increase public debt-to-GDP ratios by 18.8 percentage points over 2020-23. The package of counter-cyclical fiscal measures of 3.6 percent of GDP, however, was estimated to cushion the 2020 GDP decline by almost 2 percentage points, as well as protect jobs. A second AFSM application related to the 2018 public investment under-execution showed the importance of improving the efficiency of public investment to have positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Fiscal Policy
|2 imf
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|a International Lending and Debt Problems
|2 imf
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|a Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
|2 imf
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|a Money and Interest Rates
|2 imf
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
|2 imf
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|a Baksa, Daniel.
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|a Fukac, Martin.
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|a Hakobyan, Eduard..
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2022/118
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=118
|z IMF e-Library
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