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|a 1018-5941
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|a BD-DhAAL
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|a Barrett, Philip.
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|a Shocks to Inflation Expectations /
|c Philip Barrett, Jonathan Adams.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2022.
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|a 1 online resource (52 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary: inflation, output, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. We discuss possible resolutions to this new puzzle.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Deflation
|2 imf
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|a Expectations
|2 imf
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|a Inflation
|2 imf
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|a Price Level
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|a Speculations
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|a Adams, Jonathan.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2022/072
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=072
|z IMF e-Library
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