The Return of Expansionary Austerity : Firms' Investment Response to Fiscal Adjustments in Emerging Markets /

We study the response of corporate investment in Emerging Markets to unexpected fiscal shocks. We find that, although firm-level investment decreases on impact following unexpected public expenditure adjustments (classical Keynesian multiplier effect), it quickly rises above pre-shock levels. The re...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Magud, Nicolas
Other Authors: Pienknagura, Samuel
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2022/070
Subjects:
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 4 |a The Return of Expansionary Austerity :   |b Firms' Investment Response to Fiscal Adjustments in Emerging Markets /  |c Nicolas Magud, Samuel Pienknagura. 
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520 3 |a We study the response of corporate investment in Emerging Markets to unexpected fiscal shocks. We find that, although firm-level investment decreases on impact following unexpected public expenditure adjustments (classical Keynesian multiplier effect), it quickly rises above pre-shock levels. The rebound in investment is facilitated by fiscal space, flexible exchange rates, and more predictable fiscal policy. We also show that the composition of fiscal adjustments matters for investment's response-compared to public investment adjustments, reductions in public consumption lead to larger private investment contractions on impact, but drive private investment to above pre-shock levels. Finally, we exploit firm-level heterogeneity in several dimensions, including to show that corporate investment's recovery is stronger in firms in the tradable sector and in larger and less indebted firms, and to show that the long-run benefits to economic activity of the fiscal shock appear to outweigh its short-run costs. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a Capital  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Intangible Capital  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Investment  |2 imf 
650 7 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies  |2 imf 
700 1 |a Pienknagura, Samuel. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper   |v ;No. 2022/070 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=070  |z IMF e-Library