Nowcasting GDP : A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies /

This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF's European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning...

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Bibliografske podrobnosti
Glavni avtor: Dauphin, Jean-Francois
Drugi avtorji: Dybczak, Kamil, Maneely, Morgan, Taheri Sanjani, Marzie
Format: Revija
Jezik:English
Izdano: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022.
Serija:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/052
Teme:
Online dostop:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Dauphin, Jean-Francois. 
245 1 0 |a Nowcasting GDP :   |b A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies /  |c Jean-Francois Dauphin, Kamil Dybczak, Morgan Maneely, Marzie Taheri Sanjani. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2022. 
300 |a 1 online resource (45 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF's European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a Forecasting and Other Model Applications  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Machine Learning Algorithm  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Monetary Policy  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Nowcasting, Factor Model, Machine Learning and Large Data Sets  |2 imf 
700 1 |a Dybczak, Kamil. 
700 1 |a Maneely, Morgan. 
700 1 |a Taheri Sanjani, Marzie. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2022/052 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2022/052/001.2022.issue-052-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library