Trust What You Hear : Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility /

How do policy communications on future f iscal targets af fect market expectations and beliefs about the future conduct of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy announcements anchor expectations, based on the deviation of...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: End, Nicolas
Other Authors: Hong, Gee Hee
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/036
Subjects:
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:How do policy communications on future f iscal targets af fect market expectations and beliefs about the future conduct of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy announcements anchor expectations, based on the deviation of private expectations f rom official targets, for 41 countries. We find that policy announcements partly re-anchor expectations and that f iscal rules and strong fiscal institutions, as well as a good policy track record, contribute to magnifying this effect, thereby improving fiscal credibility. Conversely, empirical analysis suggests that markets reward credibility with more favorable sovereign financing conditions.
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Physical Description:1 online resource (59 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students