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|z 9781513573663
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|a 1018-5941
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|a BD-DhAAL
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|a Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij.
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|a Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions :
|b A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons /
|c Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, Rene Zamarripa.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2021.
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|a 1 online resource (57 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Diffusion Processes
|2 imf
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|a Foreign Exchange
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|a Informal Economy
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|a Technological Change
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|a Underground Econom
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|a Mariano Werner, Alejandro.
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|a Ricci, Luca.
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|a Zamarripa, Rene.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2021/136
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| 856 |
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/136/001.2021.issue-136-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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