Supply Bottlenecks : Where, Why, How Much, and What Next? /

Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence o...

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Главный автор: Celasun, Oya
Другие авторы: Hansen, Niels-Jakob, Mineshima, Aiko, Spector, Mariano
Формат: Журнал
Язык:English
Опубликовано: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022.
Серии:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/031
Предметы:
Online-ссылка:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs-such as autos-are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a Macroeconomics  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Output, Inflation, Manufacturing and Supply Constraints  |2 imf 
650 7 |a PPI Inflation  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations and Cycles  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Producer Price Inflation  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Supply-Shock Contribution  |2 imf 
651 7 |a Spain  |2 imf 
700 1 |a Hansen, Niels-Jakob. 
700 1 |a Mineshima, Aiko. 
700 1 |a Spector, Mariano. 
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