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|z 9781513587172
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Celasun, Oya.
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|a An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004-17 /
|c Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2021.
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|a 1 online resource (47 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naive forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors-such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners-can improve the accuracy of some economies' growth forecasts.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Econometric and Statistical Methods
|2 imf
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|a Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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|a Forecasting, Forecasting Bias and Efficiency
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|a Hypothesis Testing
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|a WEO Growth Forecast
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|a Lee, Jungjin.
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|a Mrkaic, Mico.
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|a Timmermann, Allan.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2021/216
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/216/001.2021.issue-216-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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