An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004-17 /
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growt...
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| Інші автори: | , , |
| Формат: | Журнал |
| Мова: | English |
| Опубліковано: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2021.
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| Серія: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2021/216 |
| Предмети: | |
| Онлайн доступ: | Full text available on IMF |
| Резюме: | This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naive forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors-such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners-can improve the accuracy of some economies' growth forecasts. |
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| Опис примірника: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Фізичний опис: | 1 online resource (47 pages) |
| Формат: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Доступ: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |