Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area /

We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-t...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Ebeke, Christian
Weitere Verfasser: Siminitz, Jesse
Format: Zeitschrift
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/281
Schlagworte:
Online Zugang:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Ebeke, Christian. 
245 1 0 |a Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area /  |c Christian Ebeke, Jesse Siminitz. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2018. 
300 |a 1 online resource (19 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy's long-term growth potential. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a International Trade Organizations  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Trade Policy  |2 imf 
700 1 |a Siminitz, Jesse. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2018/281 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/281/001.2018.issue-281-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library