What Do Monetary Contractions Do? : Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings /

As the 'Volcker shock' is believed to have generated useful information on the effects of monetary policy, this paper develops a simple procedure to identify other unanticipated monetary contractions. The approach is applied to a panel data set spanning 162 countries (over the period 1970-...

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Egile nagusia: Willems, Tim
Formatua: Aldizkaria
Hizkuntza:English
Argitaratua: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
Saila:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/211
Sarrera elektronikoa:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Willems, Tim. 
245 1 0 |a What Do Monetary Contractions Do? :   |b Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings /  |c Tim Willems. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2018. 
300 |a 1 online resource (29 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
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500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a As the 'Volcker shock' is believed to have generated useful information on the effects of monetary policy, this paper develops a simple procedure to identify other unanticipated monetary contractions. The approach is applied to a panel data set spanning 162 countries (over the period 1970-2017), in which it identifies 147 large monetary contractions. The procedure selects episodes where a protracted period of loose monetary policy was suddenly followed by sizeable nominal interest rate increases. Focusing on contractions of significant size increases the signal-to-noise ratio, while they are unlikely to be accompanied by confounding 'information effects' (markets interpreting a rate hike as the Central Bank being optimistic about the real side of the economy). A subsequent panel VAR analysis suggests that a 100-basis point rate hike reduces real GDP by 0.5 percent. This reduction in output seems to be persistent, pointing to a certain degree of hysteresis. The price level falls by 1.5 percent, indicating that the medium-/long-run impact of contractionary monetary shocks is not characterized by a neo-Fisherian response. Advanced economies appear to display more price stickiness than emerging/developing countries, as the former combine a more muted price response with a larger effect on output. 
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830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2018/211 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/211/001.2018.issue-211-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library