How to Assess Country Risk : The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning.

The IMF's Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund's broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The V...

Szczegółowa specyfikacja

Opis bibliograficzny
Korporacja: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department
Format: Czasopismo
Język:English
Wydane: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021.
Seria:Technical Notes and Manuals; Technical Notes and Manuals ; No. 2021/003
Hasła przedmiotowe:
Dostęp online:Full text available on IMF
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110 2 |a International Monetary Fund.  |b Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. 
245 1 0 |a How to Assess Country Risk :   |b The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2021. 
300 |a 1 online resource (66 pages) 
490 1 |a Technical Notes and Manuals 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a The IMF's Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund's broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in 'normal times.' The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a ML Technique  |2 imf 
650 7 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Risk Assessment, Supervised Machine Learning and Prediction  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Sudden Stop, Exchange Market Pressure and Fiscal Crisis  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Tax Evasion and Avoidance  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Ve Modeling Toolkit  |2 imf 
830 0 |a Technical Notes and Manuals; Technical Notes and Manuals ;  |v No. 2021/003 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/005/2021/003/005.2021.issue-003-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library