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|z 9781513573724
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|a 1018-5941
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|a BD-DhAAL
|c BD-DhAAL
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|a Alesina, Alberto.
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|a Austerity and Elections /
|c Alberto Alesina, Gabriele Ciminelli, Davide Furceri, Giorgio Saponaro.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2021.
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|a 1 online resource (70 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a Conventional wisdom holds that voters punish governments that implement fiscal austerity. Yet, most empirical studies, which rely on ex-post yearly austerity measures, do not find supportive evidence. This paper revisits the issue using action-based, real-time, ex-ante measures of fiscal austerity as well as a new database of changes in vote shares of incumbent parties. The analysis emphasizes the importance of the 'how'-whether austerity is done via tax hikes or expenditure cuts-and the 'who'-whether it is carried out by left- vs. right-leaning governments. Our main finding is that tax-based austerity carries large electoral costs, while the effect of expenditure-based consolidations depends on the political-leaning of the government. An austerity package worth 1% of GDP, carried out mostly through tax hikes, reduces the vote share of the leader's party by about 7%. In contrast, expenditure-based austerity is detrimental for left- but beneficial for right-leaning governments. We also find that the electoral cost of austerity-especially tax hikes-can be contained if it is implemented during good economic times.
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|a Foreign Exchange
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|a Informal Economy
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|a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
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|a Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenues
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|a Ciminelli, Gabriele.
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|a Furceri, Davide.
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|a Saponaro, Giorgio.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2021/121
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/121/001.2021.issue-121-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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