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|z 9781513573403
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|a Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij.
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|a Authorities' Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America :
|b Are They Optimistic? /
|c Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Ricci, Alejandro Werner, Rene Zamarripa.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2021.
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|a 1 online resource (42 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors.
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|a Debt
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|a Fiscal Policy
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|a Ricci, Luca.
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|a Werner, Alejandro.
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|a Zamarripa, Rene.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2021/154
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/154/001.2021.issue-154-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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