Authorities' Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America : Are They Optimistic? /
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, w...
| প্রধান লেখক: | |
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| অন্যান্য লেখক: | , , |
| বিন্যাস: | পত্রিকা |
| ভাষা: | English |
| প্রকাশিত: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2021.
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| মালা: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2021/154 |
| বিষয়গুলি: | |
| অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: | Full text available on IMF |
| সংক্ষিপ্ত: | Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors. |
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| উপাদানের বিবরণ: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| দৈহিক বর্ননা: | 1 online resource (42 pages) |
| বিন্যাস: | Mode of access: Internet |
| আইএসএসএন: | 1018-5941 |
| প্রবেশাধিকার: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |