Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks /

This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-co...

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Autor principal: Mati, Amine
Altres autors: Newiak, Monique, Wilson, James
Format: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicat: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021.
Col·lecció:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/163
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Accés en línia:Full text available on IMF
Descripció
Sumari:This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals-high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves-which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.
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Descripció física:1 online resource (38 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Accés:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students