Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist : Response to Covid-19 and Beyond /

Mexico's fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities' desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, risks a more severe recession and a weaker economic recovery, with further costs in the future. Balancing the need...

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Autore principale: Hannan, Swarnali
Altri autori: Honjo, Keiko, Raissi, Mehdi
Natura: Periodico
Lingua:English
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020.
Serie:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/215
Accesso online:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a Mexico's fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities' desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, risks a more severe recession and a weaker economic recovery, with further costs in the future. Balancing the need for stronger near-term fiscal support for the people and the recovery against medium-term discipline, this paper lays out an alternative strategy. We show that credibly announcing a pro-growth and inclusive medium-term fiscal reform upfront-including increased tax capacity, higher public investment and strengthened social safety nets-would open space for larger short-term support and close medium-term fiscal gaps. Model simulations suggest that this package would boost output, limit lasting economic damage from the pandemic, and put debt trajectory on a declining path in the medium term as tax reforms pay off and risk premia decline. 
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700 1 |a Raissi, Mehdi. 
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