Inflation Expectations in the U.S. : Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses /

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC's target. This paper uses a factor model that incorporates information from professional forecasters, household and business surveys, and th...

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Bibliografiske detaljer
Hovedforfatter: Williams, Peter
Format: Tidsskrift
Sprog:English
Udgivet: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020.
Serier:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/240
Online adgang:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Inflation Expectations in the U.S. :   |b Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses /  |c Peter Williams. 
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520 3 |a Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC's target. This paper uses a factor model that incorporates information from professional forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below the FOMC's target). It appears that, even before the covid recession, the private sector viewed the economy as likely to suffer from persistent headwinds to inflation. 
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