Predictive Density Aggregation : A Model for Global GDP Growth /

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we mod...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Caselli, Francesca
Weitere Verfasser: Grigoli, Francesco, Lafarguette, Romain, Wang, Changchun
Format: Zeitschrift
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020.
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/078
Schlagworte:
Online Zugang:Full text available on IMF