Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? : Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey /

Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force s...

Descrizione completa

Dettagli Bibliografici
Autore principale: Shibata, Ippei
Natura: Periodico
Lingua:English
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2019.
Serie:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2019/040
Accesso online:Full text available on IMF
LEADER 02156cas a2200241 a 4500
001 AALejournalIMF019075
008 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d
020 |c 5.00 USD 
020 |z 9781498300452 
022 |a 1018-5941 
040 |a BD-DhAAL  |c BD-DhAAL 
100 1 |a Shibata, Ippei. 
245 1 0 |a Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? :   |b Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey /  |c Ippei Shibata. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2019. 
300 |a 1 online resource (40 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2019/040 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2019/040/001.2019.issue-040-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library