Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts : The Case of IMF Growth Projections /
I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain f...
| Главный автор: | |
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| Формат: | Журнал |
| Язык: | English |
| Опубликовано: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2018.
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| Серии: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2018/260 |
| Online-ссылка: | Full text available on IMF |