Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy /

Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively correlated with long-run income growth but positively correlated...

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書目詳細資料
主要作者: Katagiri, Mitsuru
格式: 雜誌
語言:English
出版: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
叢編:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/242
在線閱讀:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively correlated with long-run income growth but positively correlated with cyclical income, thus enabling the model to replicate positive and sizable term premiums, along with the Phillips curve over business cycles. Quantitative analyses also emphasize the importance of monetary policy, predicting that a permanently low growth and low inflation environment would precipitate flatter yield curves due to constraints to monetary policy around the zero lower bound. 
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