Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy /

Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively correlated with long-run income growth but positively correlated...

詳細記述

書誌詳細
第一著者: Katagiri, Mitsuru
フォーマット: 雑誌
言語:English
出版事項: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
シリーズ:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/242
オンライン・アクセス:Full text available on IMF
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506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively correlated with long-run income growth but positively correlated with cyclical income, thus enabling the model to replicate positive and sizable term premiums, along with the Phillips curve over business cycles. Quantitative analyses also emphasize the importance of monetary policy, predicting that a permanently low growth and low inflation environment would precipitate flatter yield curves due to constraints to monetary policy around the zero lower bound. 
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