Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt : A Global Perspective /

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumpti...

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Xehetasun bibliografikoak
Egile nagusia: Alter, Adrian
Beste egile batzuk: Valckx, Nico, Xiaochen Feng, Alan
Formatua: Aldizkaria
Hizkuntza:English
Argitaratua: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
Saila:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/076
Sarrera elektronikoa:Full text available on IMF
Deskribapena
Gaia:We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors' overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.
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Deskribapen fisikoa:1 online resource (49 pages)
Formatua:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Sartu:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students