Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle /

As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-movi...

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Dades bibliogràfiques
Autor principal: Jones, Callum
Format: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicat: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
Col·lecció:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/067
Accés en línia:Full text available on IMF
Descripció
Sumari:As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession.
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Descripció física:1 online resource (45 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Accés:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students