Spillovers from US Government Spending Shocks : Impact on External Positions /

This note analyzes the impact of preannounced government spending shocks in the United States on the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance. Using a vector autoregression framework that allows anticipated fiscal shocks to be identified using survey information, we find that preannounced...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Popescu, Adina
Other Authors: Shibata, Ippei
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017.
Series:Spillover Notes; Spillover Notes ; No. 2017/001
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a This note analyzes the impact of preannounced government spending shocks in the United States on the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance. Using a vector autoregression framework that allows anticipated fiscal shocks to be identified using survey information, we find that preannounced spending shocks lead to a sizable real effective dollar appreciation and a worsening of both the aggregate trade balance and bilateral trade balances in a panel of partner countries. The results are robust to controlling for country-specific variables like the macroeconomic and policy conditions in the recipient countries, are generalized across regions and might have decreased during the zero-interest-lower-bound regime. 
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700 1 |a Shibata, Ippei. 
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