Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty /
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncerta...
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| Format: | Žurnal |
| Jezik: | English |
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Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2017.
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| Serija: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2017/219 |
| Online pristup: | Full text available on IMF |
| Sažetak: | Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible. |
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| Opis djela: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Opis: | 1 online resource (41 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Pristup: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |