Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States /

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Alichi, Ali
Other Authors: Bizimana, Olivier, Laxton, Douglas, Tanyeri, Kadir
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2017/106
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naive univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.
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Physical Description:1 online resource (25 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students