Taking Stock : Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks? /

The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect o...

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書目詳細資料
主要作者: Cerdeiro, Diego
其他作者: Plotnikov, Dmitry
格式: 雜誌
語言:English
出版: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017.
叢編:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2017/104
在線閱讀:Full text available on IMF
實物特徵
總結:The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
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實物描述:1 online resource (25 pages)
格式:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
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