Lost and Found : Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics /

The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sus...

Descripció completa

Dades bibliogràfiques
Autor principal: Cottarelli, Carlo
Altres autors: Bassanetti, Antonio, Presbitero, Andrea
Format: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicat: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
Col·lecció:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/253
Accés en línia:Full text available on IMF
Descripció
Sumari:The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost.
Descripció de l’ítem:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
<strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
Descripció física:1 online resource (34 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Accés:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students