Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts /
We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horiz...
| Glavni avtor: | |
|---|---|
| Drugi avtorji: | |
| Format: | Revija |
| Jezik: | English |
| Izdano: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2016.
|
| Serija: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2016/251 |
| Online dostop: | Full text available on IMF |
| Izvleček: | We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models. |
|---|---|
| Opis knjige/članka: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Fizični opis: | 1 online resource (33 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Dostop: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |