Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks /

Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest...

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Autor principal: Nowak, Sylwia
Altres autors: Chatterjee, Pratiti
Format: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicat: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
Col·lecció:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/228
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Accés en línia:Full text available on IMF
Descripció
Sumari:Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
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Descripció física:1 online resource (15 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Accés:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students