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|z 9781475553598
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Comelli, Fabio.
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|a To Bet or Not to Bet :
|b Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile /
|c Fabio Comelli, Esther Perez Ruiz.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2016.
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|a 1 online resource (23 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a A strand of research documents Chile's copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices' sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rekindled the debate on Chile's adjustment capacity to external shocks. Following Malz (2014), this paper builds a time-varying measure of copper price uncertainty using options contracts. VAR analysis shows that the investment response to an uncertainty shock of average magnitude in the sample is strong and persistent: the cumulative fall in investment from trend at a one-year horizon ranges 2-5.8 percentage points; and it takes between 1 1\2 and 2 years for investment to return to its trend level. Empirical ranges depend on alternative definitions for investment, uncertainty, and options' maturing time.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Perez Ruiz, Esther.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2016/218
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2016/218/001.2016.issue-218-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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