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|z 9781498351638
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Behar, Alberto.
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|a An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash /
|c Alberto Behar, Robert Ritz.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2016.
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|a 1 online resource (36 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Ritz, Robert.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2016/131
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2016/131/001.2016.issue-131-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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