An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash /
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the glob...
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| Format: | Revue |
| Langue: | English |
| Publié: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2016.
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| Collection: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2016/131 |
| Accès en ligne: | Full text available on IMF |
| Résumé: | In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output. |
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| Description: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Description matérielle: | 1 online resource (36 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Accès: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |