U.S. Dollar Dynamics : How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums? /
We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii)...
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| Інші автори: | , |
| Формат: | Журнал |
| Мова: | English |
| Опубліковано: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2016.
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| Серія: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2016/125 |
| Онлайн доступ: | Full text available on IMF |
| Резюме: | We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian USD and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian USD (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies. |
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| Опис примірника: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Фізичний опис: | 1 online resource (47 pages) |
| Формат: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Доступ: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |