Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings /

Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This paper...

Szczegółowa specyfikacja

Opis bibliograficzny
1. autor: Asonuma, Tamon
Format: Czasopismo
Język:English
Wydane: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
Seria:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/066
Dostęp online:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This paper explains these stylized facts within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework by explicitly modeling renegotiations between a defaulting country and its creditors. The quantitative analysis of the model reveals that the equilibrium probability of default for a given debt-to-GDP level is weakly increasing with the number of past defaults. The model also accords with an additional fact: lower recovery rates (high NPV haircuts) are associated with increases in spreads at renegotiation. 
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830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2016/066 
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