Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics /

Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign curren...

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Bibliografische gegevens
Hoofdauteur: Asonuma, Tamon
Formaat: Tijdschrift
Taal:English
Gepubliceerd in: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
Reeks:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/037
Online toegang:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics /  |c Tamon Asonuma. 
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300 |a 1 online resource (48 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign currencies, and endogenous determination of real exchange rate and default risk. Our quantitative analysis replicates the link between real exchange rate depreciation and default probability around defaults and moments of the real exchange rate that match the data. Prior to default, interactions of real exchange rate depreciation, originated from a sequence of low tradable goods shocks with the sovereign's large share of foreign currency debt, trigger defaults. In post-default periods, the resulting output costs and loss of market access due to default lead to further real exchange rate depreciation. 
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830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2016/037 
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