Measuring Output Gap : Is It Worth Your Time? /

We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It...

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书目详细资料
主要作者: Chen, Jiaqian
其他作者: Gornicka, Lucyna
格式: 杂志
语言:English
出版: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020.
丛编:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/024
在线阅读:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates. 
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700 1 |a Gornicka, Lucyna. 
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