Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability /

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial c...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Principal: Deghi, Andrea
Outros autores: Katagiri, Mitsuru, Shahid, Sohaib, Valckx, Nico
Formato: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/011
Acceso en liña:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Deghi, Andrea. 
245 1 0 |a Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability /  |c Andrea Deghi, Mitsuru Katagiri, Sohaib Shahid, Nico Valckx. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2020. 
300 |a 1 online resource (47 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Katagiri, Mitsuru. 
700 1 |a Shahid, Sohaib. 
700 1 |a Valckx, Nico. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2020/011 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2020/011/001.2020.issue-011-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library