Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability /

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial c...

詳細記述

書誌詳細
第一著者: Deghi, Andrea
その他の著者: Katagiri, Mitsuru, Shahid, Sohaib, Valckx, Nico
フォーマット: 雑誌
言語:English
出版事項: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020.
シリーズ:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/011
オンライン・アクセス:Full text available on IMF
その他の書誌記述
要約:This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
記述事項:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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物理的記述:1 online resource (47 pages)
フォーマット:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
アクセス:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students