Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs : Determinants and Forecasting /
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF's resources calls for the temporary sup-port...
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| Andere auteurs: | , |
| Formaat: | Tijdschrift |
| Taal: | English |
| Gepubliceerd in: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2019.
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| Reeks: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2019/245 |
| Online toegang: | Full text available on IMF |
| Samenvatting: | This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF's resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country's track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund's financial resources. |
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| Beschrijving item: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Fysieke beschrijving: | 1 online resource (48 pages) |
| Formaat: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Toegang: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |