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|z 9781513543154
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Arezki, Rabah.
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|a News Shocks in Open Economies :
|b Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries /
|c Rabah Arezki, Valerie Ramey, Liugang Sheng.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2015.
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|a 1 online resource (54 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Ramey, Valerie.
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|a Sheng, Liugang.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2015/209
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2015/209/001.2015.issue-209-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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