Deflation and Public Finances : Evidence from the Historical Records /
This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly t...
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Zeitschrift |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2015.
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| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2015/176 |
| Online Zugang: | Full text available on IMF |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate-growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019. |
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| Beschreibung: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (41 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Zugangseinschränkungen: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |