China's Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears? /

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the 'finance-neutr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Principal: Maliszewski, Wojciech
Outros autores: Zhang, Longmei
Formato: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2015/113
Acceso en liña:Full text available on IMF
Descripción
Summary:The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the 'finance-neutral' gap-our measure of the financial cycle-is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the 'Asia Tigers' and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.
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Descrición Física:1 online resource (31 pages)
Formato:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Acceso:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students