How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? /

This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-...

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Bibliografski detalji
Glavni autor: Rafiq, Sohrab
Format: Žurnal
Jezik:English
Izdano: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015.
Serija:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2015/094
Online pristup:Full text available on IMF
Opis
Sažetak:This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-to-GDP ratio causes an increase in bond yields of a relatively modest 1-to-6 basis points. Shocks to growth expectations and risk aversion have been comparatively more successful in explaining the behavior of long-term rates. The findings imply that growth policies rather than long-run projections of fiscal outcomes may be more important in helping influence long-term borrowing costs.
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Opis:1 online resource (27 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Pristup:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students